Three scenarios and one question: what will happen to your money the day after the elections?

Calcalist presents three scenarios for the impact of the 26th Knesset election results on the stock market: a victory for the current coalition, a victory for the change bloc, or a stalemate. Stock exchange studies show an average return of 16.4% in the year following elections. Rafi Gozlan warns of a rise in the risk premium if the current coalition continues, while senior officials in institutional bodies are divided in their opinions.

Calcalist examines three main scenarios for the impact of the 26th Knesset election results on the Israeli stock market: a victory for the current coalition, a victory for the change bloc, or a stalemate. The article cites studies by the stock exchange's research unit, which show that the TA-125 index yielded an average return of 16.4% in the year following elections, compared to an annual average of 11.5%. Rafi Gozlan, chief economist at IBI, warns that the continuation of the current coalition could lead to a significant increase in Israel's risk premium, referencing a statement by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu regarding the possibility of economic sanctions and the use of cryptocurrency. A senior official at a large institutional body estimates that a victory of a 'full right-wing' government would lead to sharp declines of up to 10% on the stock exchange and selling pressure from institutional bodies. Conversely, another senior official argues that the economic policies of the two blocs are not fundamentally different, so no significant market damage is expected. The article emphasizes that the market is not currently pricing in a high probability of the current coalition continuing.