The US needs a political endgame for Iran, not just more pressure - opinion

The article argues that US pressure on Iran lacks a political endgame, advocating for a strategy to support internal regime change by Iranians while preserving the state. It outlines Reza Pahlavi's five-pillar framework and the Iran Prosperity Project's transition plan, emphasizing surgical political transformation over institutional demolition.

The article argues that the United States has employed nearly every instrument of national power against the Islamic Republic of Iran—financial and oil sanctions, diplomatic isolation, intelligence operations, regional deterrence, direct military force, and pressure on proxy networks—yet lacks a political endgame. The author contends that these measures have weakened elements of the regime's nuclear, missile, maritime, and financial capabilities, but the political system that produces these threats survives. The strategic question, the piece asserts, is no longer how to change the regime's behavior, but how to create conditions in which Iranians can change the regime while preserving the Iranian state. The article presents Reza Pahlavi's five-pillar strategy as one framework: maximum pressure on the Islamic Republic, maximum support for the Iranian people, maximum encouragement of defections, maximum organization of Iranian forces, and preparation for reconstruction through the Iran Prosperity Project. The Iran Prosperity Project's Emergency Phase offers a detailed plan for the first 180 days after the Islamic Republic, addressing political authority, law, security forces, foreign policy, banking, energy, and essential government services. The author emphasizes the distinction between regime collapse and state collapse, warning against Iraq-style consequences of confusing a dictatorship with the state beneath it. The piece argues that the IRGC can be dismantled without discarding every trained individual, and that defections matter strategically—a regime whose professional backbone sees a viable exit can fracture. The author calls for Washington to begin preparing for transition through an interagency Iran transition planning group.