The pessimistic forecast of the oil market for 2027
The International Energy Agency warns that a diesel supply shortage could extend into 2027, due to a decline in output and refining capacity resulting from attacks related to the war in Iran. Ahead of winter, oil and diesel consumption is rising, and if production does not recover, barrel prices could reach an all-time high. US President Trump announced a temporary removal of sanctions on Russian oil to supply diesel to markets, but analysts question its impact.
The International Energy Agency published its latest monthly report on the oil market today (Wednesday), warning that a diesel supply shortage could extend into 2027. The reason: a sharp decline in output and refining capacity, resulting from attacks related to the war in Iran. The blockade in Hormuz has continued for over six months, and global energy supply is in a dire state. Ahead of winter, oil and diesel consumption is rising for heating purposes, and if production does not recover, there will not be enough supply to meet demand – which could drive barrel prices to an all-time high. In response, US President Donald Trump announced an unprecedented step: a temporary removal of American sanctions on Russia, so it can supply diesel to global markets. This comes after nearly five years of restrictions aimed at denying Moscow revenue for its war in Ukraine. Trump said the step will help lower high fuel prices, but various analysts doubt that the amount of diesel Russia will supply in the coming three months will be sufficient to have a significant impact.