The numbers could flip: Who will really benefit from a surge in voter turnout? | Listen

Prof. Ofer Kenig estimates that an increase in voter turnout in the 2026 elections will affect the results, but warns that increased voting in the Arab sector could actually make it harder for the Eisenkot bloc to reach 61 seats. According to him, high voter turnout raises the electoral threshold, which could serve the bloc opposing Netanyahu.

Prof. Ofer Kenig, an expert in comparative politics at the Israel Democracy Institute, estimates that the expected increase in voter turnout in the 2026 elections may affect the results. In an interview with 103FM, Kenig said the central question is which group will vote at higher rates. According to him, a 15% increase in voting in the Arab sector could distance the Netanyahu bloc from forming a government, but ironically make it harder for the Eisenkot bloc to reach 61 seats, as long as there are parties that rule out cooperation with Arabs. Kenig added that the Haredi sector appears relatively apathetic, and that high voter turnout raises the electoral threshold, which could serve the bloc opposing Netanyahu, since the parties of Ofer Winter and of Handel and Zelicha are in the danger zone.