The nuclear clock does not necessitate a strike on Iran, but the political clock is ticking

Reports from Washington suggest a possible renewal of strikes on Iran before the elections in Israel, alongside Netanyahu's efforts to advance such a move. Trump initially leaned toward agreement but cooled after talks with advisors and cross-referencing intelligence. Israeli officials confirm some Iranian progress, but not to an extent requiring immediate attack. The defense establishment is cautious due to fears of Iranian miscalculation and proximity to elections.

In the past week, reports from Washington have multiplied about the possibility of renewing strikes on Iran before the elections in Israel, and about Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's attempts to advance such a move. The Prime Minister's Office denied that Netanyahu is pushing for a strike but refrained from addressing the content of his conversations with US President Donald Trump. Barak Ravid reported that Trump initially leaned toward agreeing to a strike due to "new concerning steps Iran is taking in the nuclear field," but his enthusiasm cooled after talks with his advisors and cross-referencing American intelligence that did not indicate immediate urgency. Israeli officials confirmed this week some Iranian progress in improving and restoring capabilities, but not to an extent requiring a strike in the immediate term. Western intelligence agencies identify increased activity at two key sites: Mount Khamoush near Natanz, where Iran is trying to establish new underground enrichment facilities, and the military base at Parchin, where the nuclear trigger is being developed. Other major nuclear sites are monitored around the clock and no activity requiring a strike has been identified there. The defense establishment is cautious due to fears of Iranian miscalculation and proximity to elections. Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz have voiced threats toward Iran and Lebanon. The analysis highlights the tension between the nuclear clock and the political clock.