The Iranian Oxymoron: The Weaker Tehran Becomes, the More Dangerous It Is

Prof. Uzi Rabi analyzes the Iranian oxymoron: Iran is weaker, poorer and more isolated, yet precisely for that reason more dangerous. As it loses classic power assets, it activates chaos assets – disrupting the oil trade, raising the level of anxiety in the Gulf, and threatening digital infrastructure. Tehran is moving from the lever of supply to the lever of disruption, applying measured pressure in Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab through the Houthis. The article describes a besieged regime ready to cut the cable even if the darkness falls on it too.

In an opinion column, Prof. Uzi Rabi analyzes Iran's strategic situation. According to him, Iran is a weaker, poorer, more battered and more isolated state, yet precisely for that reason more dangerous. As it loses classic power assets, it activates chaos assets: disrupting others' oil trade, raising the level of anxiety in the Gulf, and threatening digital infrastructure. Mohsen Rezaei, a veteran security figure, expanded the threat to the digital Gulf – communication cables, data centers, cloud and artificial intelligence infrastructure in the Emirates. At the same time, Iran is applying measured pressure in the Strait of Hormuz, moving from the lever of supply to the lever of disruption. The Houthis, its proxies, create a second pressure point in Bab al-Mandab, forming a pincer concept on Saudi Arabia. The article describes a besieged regime unwilling to surrender, which feels it has little left to lose, and is ready to cut the cable even if the darkness falls on it too. Against this, Trump is trying to project deterrence without being dragged into a major war before the midterm elections.