The Illusion Level: How the Disqualification of Abu Shahada Could Affect the Arab Street

Direct Polls CEO Tzuriel Sharon analyzes the potential impact of disqualifying Balad chairman Sami Abu Shahada from running for the Knesset on voter turnout in the Arab community. Contrary to popular perception, the central argument is that the Arab voter acts from strategic considerations of hope for influence, not from anger. The combination of the weakening of the center-left bloc in polls and the disqualification could lead to a decrease in voter turnout, precisely out of despair and apathy, and not a furious backlash.

Direct Polls CEO Tzuriel Sharon analyzes in an opinion piece the potential impact of disqualifying Balad chairman Sami Abu Shahada from running for the Knesset on voter turnout in the Arab community. The central argument is that, unlike the Jewish public, which is driven by a sense of persecution, the Arab voter acts from strategic and realistic considerations: they go to the polls when they believe they have a real chance to influence the government picture. The peak of participation was recorded in the 2020 elections (round C), with over 63% turnout in the sector, when the Joint List reached 15 seats. The low point was recorded in the 2021 elections (round D) with only about 44%, after the Joint List dissolved. The article analyzes three streams in Arab society: the nationalist-activist (Balad), which may delegitimize the democratic process; the pragmatic-civil (Ra'am), which is losing its luster as the change bloc weakens; and the traditional-establishment (Hadash-Ta'al), which remains stuck in the middle. The conclusion: the disqualification, along with the general trend in polls, could lead to apathy and low voter turnout, not an "electoral intifada."