The ballot box that is holding up regional agreements
The upcoming elections in Israel and the United States create a political deadlock: Netanyahu and Trump need a diplomatic achievement, but any agreement involving an Israeli military withdrawal could become a political weakness for Netanyahu against his rivals on the right. Trump, ahead of the midterm elections, pushes for deals that will showcase an American achievement, while Jerusalem fears a heavy political price.
The upcoming elections in Israel and the United States place the Middle East at a complex political juncture. On one hand, American efforts to advance regional agreements; on the other, the elections make any agreement politically risky for the leaders who are supposed to sign it. For Benjamin Netanyahu, a regional agreement could be a significant achievement, but almost any deal in Gaza or Lebanon is expected to address the issue of the Israeli military presence. A withdrawal from territory where the IDF maintains a presence could turn a potential diplomatic achievement into a political weakness, providing ammunition for his rivals on the right. Conversely, Donald Trump is working against a political clock ahead of the November midterm elections, seeking to present achievements on the international stage. The irony: what is considered an achievement for Trump—closing a front and reaching an agreement—could become a heavy political price for Netanyahu if it requires an Israeli withdrawal. The analysis was written by Colonel (res.) Doron Hadar, former commander of an IDF negotiation team.