Taiwan for Iran: The price Trump may pay to China
Ahead of the Trump-Xi summit in Washington, the article examines the possibility that China will demand an American concession on support for Taiwan's independence in exchange for assistance in the economic struggle against Iran. Alongside these issues, the race for artificial intelligence and the $14 billion arms deal to Taiwan are on the agenda, with both leaders operating under domestic political pressures.
Ahead of the Trump-Xi summit in Washington, the article examines the complex dynamics between the two superpowers. China continues to supply Iran with components for drones and missiles, despite American sanctions, and refuses to cooperate with the economic effort to strangle Tehran. In return, the article estimates, China may demand an official American statement that the US opposes Taiwan's independence, as well as a halt to the $14 billion arms deal to the island that was frozen after the May summit. Both leaders operate under internal pressures: Trump, a month and a half before the midterm elections, faces criticism over an expensive war in Iran and the cost of living; Xi, for his part, faces a sweeping purge in the military leadership, a faltering economy, and rumors about his health. Alongside the Taiwan and Iran issues, the race for supremacy in AI technologies is at the center, with the US imposing export restrictions on chips and China controlling the production of rare earth metals. The article quotes experts from CSIS who assess that China sees Trump as weaker than in May, and that both sides will settle for preventing a confrontation.