Steve Balhas: Will Russia Attack Europe Soon? | Exclusive
Four and a half years into the war in Ukraine, the Kremlin faces a paradox: an army worn down on one front needs to project strength on another. CIA Director John Ratcliffe flew to Moscow for eight hours at the end of August and warned against a Russian attack on NATO territory. US intelligence officials assess that Russia's weakening position could push it to military action against NATO, as part of an 'escalation to de-escalate' strategy.
Four and a half years into the war in Ukraine, the Kremlin faces a paradox: an army worn down on one front needs to project strength on another. The war of attrition does not provide Putin with a decisive victory, and the question in Europe is where Russia will challenge the West. At the end of August 2026, CIA Director John Ratcliffe flew to Moscow for eight hours, warning Russia not to carry out an attack on NATO territory and urging it to cut support for Iran. US intelligence officials assessed that Russia's weakening position could push it to military action against NATO, in order to raise the cost of supporting Ukraine and force a settlement – an 'escalation to de-escalate' strategy. The article examines Russian capabilities, the gap between rhetoric and reality on the ground, and NATO's real test: whether Article 5 is a commitment or a statement.