Spain prepares for elections – and polls show a huge advantage for the right

Polls in Spain show a clear advantage for the right ahead of the November elections, with over 50% of the vote and 175 seats out of 350 in parliament. The split on the left between Sumar-IU and Podemos is losing votes, while unity on the right could strengthen the bloc. However, the fear of a comeback by the left, as happened in 2023, still exists.

Spain is preparing for elections at the end of November, after Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez resigned last week. Polls published over the weekend indicate a huge advantage for right-wing parties. The average of polls published today (Sunday) shows that in 92% of simulations, the combination of the right-wing parties PP and Vox exceeds 50% of the vote and stands at more than 175 seats out of 350 in the Spanish parliament, and in one poll even exceeds 200. The split on the left, with the parties Sumar-IU and Podemos deciding to run separately, is losing thousands of votes that are not translated into seats. Even if all left-wing parties unite with the PSOE, the right would still stand at about 193 seats. Conversely, a union of Vox with another right-wing party could save votes lost in a separate run and add about three seats to the bloc, raising PP and Vox to 182. However, none of the alliances are sealed. The fear on the right is of a comeback by a united left, as happened in 2023 and brought Sánchez to power.