Scenarios that were not on the table: the security assessment, and the lesson - we must be prepared for everything

An analysis of the Israeli security establishment's assessment ahead of Simchat Torah 2026, three years after October 7. The central lesson: the warning will not always be concrete, and we must be prepared for scenarios that were not on the table, such as the attempted takeover of a Flydubai flight. Iran is at the center of concerns, alongside fears of igniting the West Bank and kidnapping attempts in Gaza.

Yossi Yehoshua analyzes the Israeli security establishment's assessment ahead of Simchat Torah 2026, three years after the October 7, 2023 massacre. The starting point is the attempted takeover of a Flydubai flight, a scenario that was not on the table in previous security assessments. The central lesson: the warning will not always be concrete, and we must be prepared for everything. Iran is at the center of concerns, with the assessment that American pressure on it is effective and may lead it to choose between an agreement and a confrontation. However, the current assessment is that no Iranian attack is expected in the near term. In Gaza, there is a concrete warning about an attempt to kidnap a soldier, which has led to high alert. In Judea and Samaria, the picture is explosive, with 26 battalions deployed in the sector. The article emphasizes that intelligence is never perfect, and that a warning must be translated into real-time action.

Scenarios that were not on the table: the security assessment, and the lesson - we must be prepared for everything