Sanctions strangle Iranian economy as IRGC goes on high alert over civil unrest risks - analysis

Senior Israeli defense officials estimate that economic sanctions are choking the Iranian regime, forcing internal security apparatuses onto high alert to preempt widespread civil unrest. Iran is pursuing diplomatic and military maneuvers to break its isolation, while maintaining its regional proxy network, including a reported $200 million transfer to Hezbollah.

Senior Israeli defense officials estimate that economic sanctions are choking the Iranian regime, forcing internal security apparatuses onto high alert to preempt widespread civil unrest. According to assessments, the Iranian street is simmering, and the next boiling point, driven by American leverage, could arrive within months, though public reaction remains unpredictable. Following new US sanctions that took effect on September 23 and targeted flights from Iran, many countries suspended Iranian flights. While China rejected the sanctions and Turkey reduced flight volumes, Armenia, Russia, Afghanistan, and Pakistan continue to allow Iranian flights. Iran is also working to maintain its regional proxy network, with reports indicating that approximately $200 million was recently transferred to Hezbollah. According to Israeli sources, Iran has resumed ballistic missile production and is working to restore damaged weaponry. Politically, Tehran is attempting to open diplomatic channels to buy time. In response, Israel conveyed messages to the US, Gulf nations, and regional mediators stressing that any Iranian surprise offensive will trigger an exceptionally severe military response. Defense officials emphasize extremely high operational coordination between the IDF and US Central Command.