Russia risks freezing this winter - Ukraine finds Russia's vulnerability

Ukraine is expanding its long-range strike capabilities, and with the onset of frost, Russia's vast territory becomes vulnerable. The Atlantic Council examines a scenario where Russian energy infrastructure falls within striking range due to a shortage of air defense systems. Strikes in 2026 have already reduced production at half of the largest refineries.

Ukraine is expanding its long-range strike capabilities, and with the onset of frost, one feature of Russia could turn into a serious problem. The Atlantic Council examines a scenario where Russian energy and oil refining infrastructure increasingly falls within striking range due to a shortage of air defense systems across the vast territory. Strikes in 2026 have already reduced production at half of Russia's largest refineries producing diesel fuel. On September 20, Ukraine carried out the largest drone attack of the war on Moscow, damaging the Moscow Refinery. Oil production in Russia in 2026 could drop to its lowest level since 2009. Under a scenario of sustained attacks, the consequences could accumulate, and for the first time in the war, a significant number of Russians could face the winter with the effects of the Ukrainian campaign. Meanwhile, Russia is increasing missile production and continuing strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure.