Rain at the ballot box: Will showers on election day hurt voter turnout? | Israel News

The article examines whether the expected rain on election day will affect voter turnout, and determines that in Israeli history there is no proven link between rain and voter turnout. The highest participation rate was recorded precisely on a stormy winter day in January 1949, while summer elections recorded lower percentages. The upcoming elections on October 27 will be the first in 38 years to be held on the original legal date.

The article examines whether the expected rain on election day, this coming Tuesday, will affect voter turnout. The answer, based on historical examination in Israel, is unequivocally no. The historic participation peak of 87% was recorded precisely in the elections for the first Knesset in January 1949, on a stormy winter day. In contrast, routine summer elections in July 1951 recorded only 75%. The low point, 63.5%, was recorded in the 2006 elections, a spring day with rain in parts of the country, but the Israel Meteorological Service determined there was no real connection to rain. The Israeli legislator set the month of Cheshvan as a fixed date for elections due to the moderate weather, but since 1988 all election campaigns have been moved up. The upcoming elections on October 27 will be the first in 38 years to be held on the original date. Studies from abroad show a moderate effect of rain on voting, but in Israel election day is a day off, which makes comparison difficult.