Prof. Gilad Hirschberger, Yosef Maklada and Prof. Sivan Hirsch-Hoefler: The spark and the glue on the way to the ballot box
Prof. Gilad Hirschberger, Yosef Maklada and Prof. Sivan Hirsch-Hoefler argue that seat polls do not measure the strength of motivation to go to the polls. They introduce the concepts of 'spark' (the emotion that arouses a desire for change) and 'glue' (the sense of civic duty). Based on surveys they conducted, they estimate that the voter turnout in Arab society may exceed 65%.
Prof. Gilad Hirschberger, Yosef Maklada and Prof. Sivan Hirsch-Hoefler argue that the seat polls presented in the media provide only a partial picture, because they measure only who people will vote for, not the strength of motivation to go to the polls. The article presents two key concepts: 'spark' – the emotion (anger, fear, hope) that arouses a desire for change, and 'glue' – the sense of civic duty that turns a momentary desire into actual action. The authors rely on surveys they conducted in Arab and Jewish society in Israel, and show that the desire to act for the group increases the intention to vote through a sense of commitment. They analyze the fluctuations in voter turnout in Arab society over the years: 63.5% in 2015 under the Joint List, a drop to 49.2% in April 2019 after its dissolution, a renewed rise to 59.2% in September 2019 and to about 65% in March 2020, a drop to about 45% in 2021 and a rise to 53% in 2022 even without unification. The authors estimate that today the voter turnout in Arab society may exceed the 65% threshold, based on higher commitment indicators. However, they warn that polls tend to overestimate expected turnout, as survey respondents are more politically engaged than the general public. The article calls on parties to provide shared and clear content so that commitment materializes at the ballot box.