Peak alert: Israel prepares for renewed fighting against Iran

The defense establishment assesses that Tehran may try to preempt Israel and launch a broad attack, after being surprised twice in the past. Despite the economic crisis, Iran is investing in rebuilding its missile and drone array. Israel is increasing readiness, including for the possibility of renewed strikes in coordination with the US. No decision has yet been made on another campaign.

The defense establishment is at peak alert for the possibility of renewed fighting against Iran. The prevailing assessment is that Tehran, after being surprised twice in the past by Israeli operations, may try to reverse the equation and land a first strike in a broad attack on its own initiative. Such a scenario could reignite a direct military confrontation and start a race for the element of surprise, where each side tries to avoid being the first attacked. Israel assumes that the two Israeli surprises have not been forgotten in Tehran, hence the fear that the regime will strike first. The concern is heightened against the backdrop of Iran's severe economic distress. The blockade in the Strait of Hormuz is hurting state revenues and deepening the internal crisis. Nevertheless, Tehran continues to prioritize rebuilding military capabilities: increased production of ballistic missiles, launchers, and drones, along with restoring capabilities damaged in previous strikes. On the other side, Israel is monitoring developments and increasing operational readiness for extreme scenarios, including dealing with a surprise attack while considering renewed strikes deep inside Iran in coordination with the United States. However, no official decision has yet been made by the political echelon to launch another campaign. The equation also includes the political reality in Israel, which is on the eve of elections.