On the way to a decade-high voter turnout? The gap between blocs in willingness to go to the polls

A Channel 12 poll finds 72% of respondents intend to vote; a 7-point gap between the opposition (81%) and coalition (74%) in willingness to go to the polls. Lessons from the past: in 2022, a surge in right-wing voting in the poll predicted Netanyahu's victory.

A Channel 12 poll, eight days before the elections, indicates a 72% voter turnout intention. A breakdown by blocs reveals a seven-percentage-point gap: 81% of opposition voters say they will vote compared to 74% among coalition voters. The article notes that in the 2021 and 2022 elections, actual turnout was about two percentage points higher than the weekly poll, so if the trend continues, turnout could reach 74%. The article reviews past lessons: in the 2021 elections, there was almost no difference between the camps in willingness to vote, and overall turnout was relatively low (67.4%), leading to 52 seats for the Netanyahu bloc and the formation of the Bennett-Lapid government. In contrast, the 2022 elections saw a surge in willingness to vote on the right from 64% to 73%, which preceded a rise in turnout to 70.6% and the achievement of 64 seats for the Netanyahu bloc. Channel 12 pollster Mano Geva detailed the placement of 70 sample polling stations across the country, whose results will be broadcast when polls close at 10:00 PM.