Not just the Haredi: Why Israelis have more children while the West has fewer?

An analysis by economist Yanai Shpitzer examines Israel's high fertility rate compared to the West, pointing to an exceptional family culture as a key factor, alongside extended family involvement and extensive fertility treatment policies. The analysis warns that delayed births among secular women could change the picture in the future.

Economist Yanai Shpitzer analyzes Israel's high fertility rate, which stood at 2.87 children per woman in 2024, well above the demographic replacement level (2.1) and in stark contrast to the declining trend in the West. Shpitzer notes that Israel is "the only clear exception" in the developed world, and that if it had followed the general trend, its fertility rate would have dropped by about 2.5 children per woman — in reality, it fell by just over one child. The analysis dismisses the simple explanation attributing the anomaly solely to the Haredi sector: even if all Jews were secular, Israel would still lead the OECD. Shpitzer relies on research by demographer Alex Weinreb from the Taub Center, which shows a decline in fertility among non-religious Jewish women aged 30-34 from 1.42 children in 2004 to 0.87 in 2024, but emphasizes that the decline is mainly due to delayed births rather than a reduction in total number. Factors behind the Israeli anomaly include a strong family culture, extended family involvement (grandparents in care and funding, short geographical distances, multi-generational Shabbat meals), and extensive fertility treatment policies — about 5,265 IVF cycles per million residents per year, four times the European average. However, Shpitzer qualifies the claim that treatments are the main factor, since only slightly more than 5% of births result from them. He adds a historical and ideological layer: the Holocaust, the founding of the state, and a sense of national vulnerability have made family and generational continuity values of exceptional significance. The article warns that the Israeli exception is not guaranteed forever: according to Weinreb's forecast, the fertility rate of secular Jewish women could drop to about 1.5 children per woman in the 2030s, and the demographic anomaly may in the future stem more from the growing weight of the Haredi and religious.