Mystery: The number of double envelopes actually decreased since the last elections

Contrary to early estimates of a significant increase in the number of double envelopes in the elections for the 26th Knesset, 451,988 envelopes were actually counted – a slight decrease compared to 462,807 in the 2022 elections. The political impact was marginal: one seat moved from Shas to Likud. The article indicates that the data shows a military order of battle no larger than in 2022, contrary to assumptions about extensive reserve mobilization.

Ahead of last week's elections for the 26th Knesset, early estimates predicted a significant increase in the number of double envelopes, up to over 600,000, due to the wars of the past three years that mobilized hundreds of thousands of reservists and evacuated residents from their homes. In practice, when the double envelopes were counted on Thursday evening, it turned out that the number was 451,988 – within the official estimate range of the Central Elections Committee (430,000–480,000), and even slightly lower than the 462,807 double envelopes in the 2022 elections. The political impact was marginal: the double envelopes transferred one seat from Shas to Likud, both in the same political bloc. The article notes that politicians' statements, including those of Yisrael Beiteinu chairman Avigdor Lieberman who predicted 14–15 seats from the envelopes, proved false. The article concludes that the number of active-duty soldiers in closed units is not larger than in 2022, and quotes a military source claiming erosion of reserve fighters and a deficient order of battle in field units.