Lies, Falsehoods and Statistics
Retired judge Amnon Strashnov attacks the reliability of polls in Israel, citing historical errors and mistakes in the 2026 elections, where polls predicted about 20 seats for Likud but it actually received 27, and estimated an advantage for the Change Bloc that was reversed in the actual results. He casts doubt on the claim that polls are based on scientific statistical methods.
Retired judge Amnon Strashnov publishes a sharp opinion piece against the reliability of polls in Israel, especially during election periods. He cites historical examples, including the last elections in 2026, where polls predicted about twenty seats for Likud but it actually received 27, and estimated an advantage for the Change Bloc (56 vs. 52 for the coalition) but the final results showed 55 for the coalition and 48 for the Change Bloc. Strashnov attacks the pollsters' claim that polls are based on 'scientific statistical methods', stating that such large errors cannot be excused as a 'sampling error'. He raises the possibility that voters lie to pollsters, but asks why pollsters should also deceive the public. The article ends with an ironic suggestion to add a sampling error warning of 4–10 seats, or to consult a fortune teller.