Israel must set red lines on Turkish presence in Syria to avoid confrontation, think tank argues

The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) argues that Israel should adopt a more nuanced approach in Syria, distinguishing between technical Turkish assistance and independent Turkish military infrastructure. The think tank warns that Israel's aggressive policy could backfire, potentially inviting US pressure and leading to direct confrontation with Turkey. INSS recommends focused military deterrence combined with diplomatic dialogue with Damascus.

The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) think tank argues that Israel needs to draw more limited red lines on Turkish activities in Syria, rather than the aggressive approach taken since the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024. The report, authored by former senior IDF intelligence advisor Carmit Valensi and researcher Amal Hayek, recommends distinguishing between technical assistance and training for the Syrian state, and the establishment of independent Turkish command-and-control infrastructure. INSS warns that Israel's aggressive policy could backfire, potentially inviting US pressure to abandon its buffer zone without significant security concessions. The think tank contends that deploying Turkish radar, electronic warfare, or air defense systems in northern Syria does not in itself constitute a red line warranting Israeli force, as their coverage ranges are similar to systems in southern Turkey. INSS recommends that Israel combine focused military deterrence with direct and indirect dialogue with Damascus, utilize deconfliction mechanisms, and clearly define areas where Syria can rebuild its capabilities.