How Russia could test NATO with 'lost' soldiers on the border – expert

Israeli expert Yigal Levin describes a scenario in which Russia could test NATO's resolve through a provocation disguised as an accident: Russian soldiers allegedly get 'lost' during exercises and end up on the territory of an alliance country. Levin analyzes NATO's dilemma — a harsh response risks escalation, while inaction is perceived as weakness — and proposes pre-announced response procedures, an 'iron wall' of rules.

Israeli expert Yigal Levin outlines a hypothetical scenario in which Russia could test NATO's resolve through a provocation disguised as an accident. According to the scenario, Russian soldiers during exercises allegedly get 'lost' — due to equipment breakdown, navigation problems, or the need to evacuate a wounded soldier — and end up on the territory of a NATO country: Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, or Finland. Levin analyzes the dilemma this poses for the alliance. A direct strike on Russian soldiers, if the incident is indeed accidental, risks sharp escalation. However, the lack of a firm response, in the expert's view, could be perceived by Moscow as a signal that such actions are permissible. The expert links the scenario to the Russian practice of 'gray zones' — situations where the intentions and origins of participants can be interpreted in different ways. He recalls the downing of a Russian Su-24 by Turkey in 2015 and the destruction of a Russian Il-20 over Syria in 2018: in both cases, Moscow did not escalate to a direct confrontation. Levin suggests that the Kremlin may be willing to accept losses if they allow testing the limits of what is acceptable for the other side. The expert sees a solution in an 'iron wall' — a system of pre-announced rules under which crossing the border by armed people automatically triggers a predetermined response, regardless of the stated reason. In his formulation, 'action A is immediately followed by reaction B.'