How much did the polling companies actually get wrong in the elections?

Prof. Danny Pfeffermann, former head of the Central Bureau of Statistics, analyzes the accuracy of election polls and recommends avoiding fake polling station samples due to representation and bias issues, and instead relying on a sample of polling stations with real results that can be published within about two hours.

Prof. Danny Pfeffermann, former head of the Central Bureau of Statistics, analyzes in an opinion piece the accuracy of election polls in Israel 2026. He distinguishes between three types of polls: the weekly polls published before the elections, the fake exit polls published when the polls closed, and the polls based on real results from the sample stations published in the early morning hours. Pfeffermann argues that the fake exit polls suffer from fundamental problems: not all voters agree to participate, participants may not represent the entire electorate, and some may intentionally answer differently from their actual vote. In contrast, polls based on real results, such as those by Mano Geva on Channel 12 at 2:00 AM and by Shmuel Rosner on Channel 13 at 1:00 AM, produced results very close to the national totals. His conclusion: in the future, fake exit polls should be avoided and only a sample of polling stations with real results should be used, which can be published within about two hours after the elections end.