Gerald Posner analyzes whether Hamas actions on October 7 meets the legal standard for genocide

Investigative journalist Gerald Posner released a new paper examining whether the Hamas-led October 7 attack meets the legal standard for genocide under the 1948 Genocide Convention. Posner analyzes the actus reus and special intent requirements, citing the 1988 Hamas Covenant, leadership statements, and empirical evidence from the attack on southern Israeli communities.

Investigative journalist Gerald Posner released a new paper on Monday examining whether the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel on October 7 meets the legal standard for genocide under the 1948 Genocide Convention. Posner, who previously authored a legal primer examining whether Israel's military campaign in Gaza met the genocide threshold, has now turned his focus toward Hamas's actions. In his analysis, titled 'The Genocide Case Against Hamas,' Posner addresses threshold questions regarding duration and non-state entities, noting that the Genocide Convention does not require a prolonged campaign and that international tribunals have established that genocide can be committed by non-state groups. He outlines the two core components required under international law: the actus reus, or guilty act, and dolus specialis, the special intent to destroy a national, ethnic, racial, or religious group. To evaluate intent, Posner examines written records and public statements from Hamas leadership, including the 1988 Hamas Covenant and statements from leaders such as Yahya Sinwar and Fathi Hammad, alongside empirical evidence from the attack. He analyzes the attack on more than 20 civilian communities, noting that at places like Kibbutz Be'eri, Kfar Aza, and Nir Oz, terrorists went house to house, set homes on fire, and executed families, with recovered-body data showing 80% of bodies at Be'eri had been tortured. Posner also addresses counter-arguments regarding non-Jewish casualties and conducts a detailed comparison with the 1995 Srebrenica massacre. He points out that international bodies and human rights organizations applied the genocide framework exclusively to Israel while omitting any formal analysis of the October 7 attack.