Fewer than ten accounts set the tone in Israeli election betting on Polymarket

A new study reveals that fewer than ten accounts determine the tone in Israeli election betting on Polymarket, raising concerns about market manipulation. In one case, two wallets surged contract prices from $0.7 to $6.65 cents.

A new study reveals that fewer than ten accounts determine the tone in Israeli election betting on Polymarket, raising concerns about market manipulation. The researchers, Prof. Moran Ofir from the University of Haifa, Prof. Joshua Mitts from Columbia University, and Dan Zimmerman from BETINT, analyzed 1.24 million transactions conducted across 89,212 accounts from June 2025 to October 13, 2026. In one case, two wallets surged the contract prices for Ofer Winter from $0.7 to $6.65 cents, leading to headlines that he was overtaking Avigdor Lieberman. In another case, an account named Outlandish-Boxspring invested $155,000 on Netanyahu and briefly boosted his chances from 29.5% to 36%. The researchers found that seven accounts hold $607,000 in bets against Netanyahu, about 29% of all money wagered against him. Additionally, 82% of accounts that bet on the elections also bet on the wars in Israel and the Middle East. Prof. Ofir warns that the market is vulnerable and subject to manipulation, and recommends not attributing much significance to the results.