Failure on exit-poll night: Sociologists explain what exactly happened

Six Israeli television channels published contradictory exit polls on the evening of October 27: the spread for Netanyahu's bloc ranged from 50 to 60 seats. Sociologists explain why the surveys did not reflect the real picture and discuss the loss of trust in them.

On the evening of October 27, after the polling stations closed for the elections to the 26th Knesset, six Israeli television channels published exit poll results that showed an anomalous spread: from 50 to 60 seats for Netanyahu's bloc. There were also differences in the assessment of individual party strengths. The Ynet editorial board turned to sociologists for explanations. Shmuel Rosner, who conducts polls for Channel 13 Keshet, admitted that the strengthening of Likud was the main surprise for him, which pre-election polls did not reflect. Tzuriel Sharon, founder of the Direct Polls institute, stated that he was confident in his figures, but was surprised by the high turnout in the Arab sector. Sociologists urge not to lose trust in polls as a tool for determining trends and cautiously speak about the prospect of repeat elections.