Even at 10 PM you won't be sure: the dramatic election nights when the polls were way off

The article reviews four dramatic election campaigns in which exit polls made major errors: 1996 (Peres led, Netanyahu won), 2015 (from a tie to a six-seat victory for Likud), April 2019 (Gantz declared victory, results showed a tie), and 2022 (Meretz got 4-5 seats in polls but failed to pass the electoral threshold). The article warns against over-reliance on the polls to be published tomorrow.

The article reviews dramatic election nights in Israel's history where exit polls made major errors, and warns against over-reliance on the poll results to be published tomorrow at 10 PM. It opens with a warning that history teaches it is not always wise to rush to celebrate or concede defeat based on polls. The first example is the 1996 elections, where polls indicated a slight advantage for Shimon Peres, but ultimately Benjamin Netanyahu won with 50.5% of the vote. The second example is the 2015 elections, dubbed 'Yom Kippur of the polls,' where a tight race between Likud and the Zionist Union was projected, but in reality Likud received 30 seats versus 24 for the Zionist Union. The third example is the April 2019 elections, where Channel 12's poll gave Blue and White 37 seats versus 33 for Likud, and Benny Gantz declared victory, but the actual results showed 35 seats for each party. In those elections, the New Right party of Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked failed to pass the electoral threshold despite receiving 3.2% of the vote. The fourth example is the 2022 elections, where all four polls gave Meretz four to five seats, but in reality the party failed to pass the threshold by a margin of about 4,000 votes. The article notes that pollsters fear the surveys and polls may be volatile this year due to the tight race, the phenomenon of respondents not answering honestly, the difficulty in deciphering voting patterns of populations such as Haredim, and dependence on turnout.