Climate change affects the spread of dangerous infection – scientists

Scientists from the Natural History Museum in London and Oxford University have found that changes in rainfall affect rodent populations, increasing the risk of Lassa fever outbreaks. A model tested on 6,000 cases in Nigeria allows forecasting seasonal periods of increased incidence.

Researchers from the Natural History Museum in London, Oxford University, and other scientific institutions have established that climate change, particularly rainfall levels, affects the population of rodents that carry Lassa fever. Wetter conditions increase the food supply and promote rodent reproduction, raising the risk of virus transmission to humans. The developed model was tested on data from over 6,000 disease cases in Nigeria and accurately identified seasonal periods of increased incidence. Scientists also found that infected female rodents can transmit the virus to their offspring, helping it persist in the population. However, the model cannot yet precisely predict the scale of future outbreaks, as infection spread is also influenced by human behavior, frequency of contact with rodents, and the effectiveness of disease detection systems. Researchers believe that understanding the link between climate, animal populations, and infections could help improve epidemiological control measures.