A hint of elections in Israel? Polymarket missed the results in Serbia and Brazil

An article in Globes examines the reliability of Polymarket as an election prediction tool, against the backdrop of Gadi Eisenkot and Yashar! leading in the Israeli market. The author brings examples from Brazil and Serbia where predictions failed, and concludes that the lead should not be seen as proof of actual results.

An article in Globes examines the reliability of the Polymarket prediction market as a tool for forecasting election results, against the backdrop of Gadi Eisenkot and the Yashar! party leading in the Israeli election market. The author, Alon Perel, notes that many in Israel attribute great importance to Polymarket, but brings two international examples where predictions failed. In Brazil, the platform gave Jair Bolsonaro an 82% chance of winning the second round, but in reality Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won. In Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić received a 70% chance before the elections, but conceded defeat afterwards. Prof. Moran Ofir from the University of Haifa explains that in the second round in Brazil, huge investments were placed on Bolsonaro. The conclusion: the lead of Eisenkot and Yashar! on Polymarket is not proof of actual results.