1 in 6 chance: The disaster we are barely preparing for could starve billions

Researchers at the University of Cambridge warn there is a 1 in 6 chance of a magnitude 7 volcanic eruption in the next century, which could disrupt the climate, wipe out crops, and hit the global economy. The assessment is based on a 2025 UN global risk report, presenting scenarios of crop loss affecting up to 2.9 billion people and economic damage of up to $4.8 trillion over five years.

Researchers at the University of Cambridge warn there is a 1 in 6 chance of a magnitude 7 volcanic eruption on the Volcanic Explosivity Index within the next century. The warning, originally published in 2022 by researchers Michael Cassidy and Lara Mani, is based on a more recent risk assessment prepared by Mani for the UN's 2025 Global Risk Report. The closest comparison is the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora in Indonesia, which caused the "year without a summer" in 1816, frost and snow in unexpected places, crop failure, and a spike in food prices. New models suggest that an eruption of similar magnitude could cause crop loss equivalent to the annual food consumption of 1 to 2.9 billion people, depending on the eruption's location and the climatic response. Economic damage is estimated at $1.2 to $4.8 trillion within five years. The researchers emphasize that a smaller eruption in the wrong place could close air routes, damage undersea cables, and disrupt ports, as seen in the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland and the 2022 eruption in Tonga. The proposed solution is investment in satellite monitoring, sensors, geological research, and early warning systems.