Will Trump lose control of Congress? The scenario that scares the markets

A Globes analysis examines the risk that Trump will lose Republican control of Congress in the midterm elections, a scenario that worries the markets. High inflation and the cost of living are hurting public support, and UBS estimates a 50% probability of Democratic control of both chambers. Historical data shows that under a Republican president, Democratic control yielded an average return of 4.9% for the S&P 500 index.

A report by Ariel Witman in Globes examines the possibility that U.S. President Donald Trump will lose Republican control of Congress in the midterm elections, a scenario that raises concerns in the markets. According to a Reuters poll, only 32% of Americans express satisfaction with Trump's performance, and 73% believe the cost of living is moving in the wrong direction. Annual inflation stands at 3.7%, and gasoline prices have surged 34.2% over the year. The Federal Reserve kept the interest rate in the range of 3.75%-4%, with a 71% probability of a rate hike in December. UBS assigns a 50% probability to Democrats winning both houses of Congress. A historical analysis by Carson shows that under a Republican president, Democratic control of both houses yielded an average return of 4.9% for the S&P 500 index in the year following the elections, the lowest among all configurations.