Will Russia really attack NATO? How European intelligence chiefs responded in a rare interview

Three European intelligence chiefs warn in rare interviews with The Guardian that Russia may test NATO soon. The head of Czech intelligence claims a limited attack is possible within months, but his counterparts in Latvia and Estonia downplay the threat, saying there are no signs of an imminent attack and that panic could serve Putin.

Three senior European intelligence chiefs gave rare interviews to the British newspaper The Guardian, addressing the possibility that Russia might test the NATO alliance with a military attack. Michal Koudelka, head of the Czech Security Information Service (BIS), said a limited-scale attack, including minor incursions, false-flag provocations, and influence campaigns, is possible within months, not years. In contrast, the director of the Latvian Security Service, Normunds Mežviats, tempered the assessment, stating he sees no signs of an imminent attack and warned that amplifying the scenario could serve the Kremlin. The Secretary General of Estonia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Jonatan Vseviov, also pushed back against 'social media panic' on the issue. Swedish intelligence chief Thomas Nilsson said Moscow is not interested in genuine negotiations and is playing 'theater of negotiations.' All three agreed that Russia's sabotage campaign in Europe is likely to intensify. The interviews come against the backdrop of earlier warnings from Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and French President Emmanuel Macron, and amid the war in Ukraine.