Will a catastrophe occur due to the collision of the Milky Way and Andromeda?..

New astronomical calculations cast doubt on the inevitability of a head-on collision between the Milky Way and Andromeda. Data from the Hubble and Gaia telescopes show a high degree of uncertainty: estimates of the probability of a merger in the next few billion years range from 50% to 90%, depending on the model. A key role is played by the complexity of measuring lateral motion and the gravitational influence of satellite galaxies.

New astronomical calculations cast doubt on the inevitability of a catastrophic collision between the Milky Way and the Andromeda galaxy. For a long time, it was believed that a head-on impact would occur in about 4.5 billion years, but data from the Hubble and Gaia telescopes have radically changed the picture. In June 2025, a team led by Till Sawala estimated the chances of a merger in the next 10 billion years as 50-50. However, in April 2026, a new study led by Hao Wu raised the probability to 90%, shifting the median timeframe to 6.5 billion years. A key role in such fluctuations is played by the complexity of measuring the lateral motion of the systems and the gravitational influence of neighboring galaxies — Triangulum and the Large Magellanic Cloud. Accounting for both satellites reduces the overall probability to parity values. Even if a merger occurs, a catastrophic collision of individual stars is not expected due to the colossal distances between them. Current data do not yet allow a final verdict.