Who needs Arab parties in the elections — and why the answer may surprise you

The article analyzes how the possible disqualification of Arab parties in the Knesset elections could affect the distribution of mandates and the ability of political blocs to form a government. The author examines historical precedents, including the ban on the Kah party in 1988, and mathematical models of vote redistribution. The main paradox: the participation of Arab parties may benefit Netanyahu's bloc, even if he does not receive their votes, because their mandates reduce the number of seats for Jewish parties.

The article analyzes the political and mathematical effect of the possible disqualification of Arab parties in the upcoming Knesset elections. Formally, the dispute concerns the parties' compliance with Article 7A of the Basic Law, but behind it lies a practical question: how will the ban affect the distribution of mandates? The author references history: the Central Elections Committee has repeatedly attempted to disqualify parties (Balad, Ra'am-Ta'al), but the Supreme Court overturned the decisions. An exception is the ban on the Kah party in 1988, upheld by the court. At that time, the party was polling 6-7 mandates, and its disqualification changed the right flank. The peculiarity of Arab parties is that they do not join the coalition, but their mandates reduce the number of seats for Jewish parties. Using the example of the 2022 elections: if Balad (138,617 votes) had not participated, and 75% of its votes had transferred to other Arab lists, Netanyahu's bloc would have received 62 mandates instead of 64. According to a Channel 12 poll, Arab factions could receive 12 mandates. If they are excluded and 108 seats are redistributed among Jewish parties, a scenario of 64 to 56 is possible. The main paradox: the participation of Arab parties may benefit Netanyahu's bloc, as their mandates take away seats from other Jewish parties. The outcome depends on turnout, the electoral threshold, and vote distribution. The Central Elections Committee's decision may be reviewed by the Supreme Court, and its political consequences could be far-reaching.