War drums against Iran: three hurdles on the path to renewing the campaign

Amid reports in the Wall Street Journal about US-Israeli military preparations to renew strikes on Iran, three political and security events are determining the timing of the operation: the conclusion of elections in Israel, the US midterm elections next week, and the fear of an Iranian 'October surprise'.

Amid reports in the Wall Street Journal about extensive US and Israeli military preparations to renew a wave of strikes on Iran, three political and security events are determining the timing of the operation and the maneuvering room of President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The first hurdle is the elections in Israel, which concluded yesterday, removing a significant political constraint that prohibited a strike on the eve of the vote. The second hurdle is the US midterm elections on November 3, 2026, with Trump avoiding a renewal of hostilities before the polls close, fearing a shock to public opinion and harm to Republican candidates. The third hurdle is the fear of an 'October surprise' from Tehran, meaning an Iranian military provocation in the final days of October that would damage Trump's standing. According to the report, the US sent messages to Gulf states and completed a broad operational deployment, including replenishing ammunition depots and advancing fighter squadrons. Israel sought to act forcefully in October but was turned down at the White House's request.