Tight race: The elections in the country that will change its attitude toward Israel

Brazil is heading to dramatic elections on October 4, with a tight race between incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flavio Bolsonaro. Polls show near-total parity in the second round. The outcome will affect Brazil's foreign relations, especially with Israel: Bolsonaro has pledged that an official visit to Jerusalem will be one of his first steps, in contrast to the current Lula administration's positions.

Brazil faces dramatic elections on October 4, with a tight race between incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (age 80, Workers' Party PT) and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro (age 45, Liberal Party PL), the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Polls show a close picture: a Quaest poll gives Lula 39% versus 34% for Bolsonaro in the first round, and in a simulated second round, a complete tie of 42% each. A Datafolha poll predicts a tense second round of 47% versus 45% in favor of Lula. The election campaign takes place against a backdrop of erosion in public trust: only 37% of voters expressed satisfaction with democracy in a Pew poll. The battle for Congress is expected to produce a rightward shift in the Senate, and the elected president will appoint at least three new Supreme Court justices. Geopolitically, a Bolsonaro victory would mark a sharp turn toward Washington and Israel: he has pledged that an official visit to Jerusalem will be one of his first steps, in contrast to the current Lula administration's positions. The article notes that his victory would complete a 'blue wave' in South America, turning a distinctly anti-Israel continent into a pro-Israel one.