This is what will tip the scales in the elections | Daphna Liel in an opinion column

An opinion column by Daphna Liel examining the factors that will determine the outcome of the elections on October 27, 2026. Liel analyzes why the polls are particularly volatile this time, pointing to three key variables: a last-minute surge toward the major parties, the question of small parties crossing the electoral threshold, and the overall and segmented voter turnout. She notes that 10.3% of the public is still undecided, and the decision will be made at the ballot box. Liel points to historical examples: the 2015 elections, when polls favored the Zionist Camp but Likud won with 30 seats; April 2019, when both major parties strengthened at the last moment; and the 2022 elections, when polls were accurate in votes but not in seats due to parties falling below the threshold. The column examines the impact of voter turnout in the Arab community, Likud, and the Haredi community, noting that new parties may draw votes from existing ones. Liel notes that the Change Bloc has set a target of over 76% turnout in Sharon, Tel Aviv, and Haifa.