The scenario that wasn't on the table: the question of warning, and the understanding - one must be prepared for everything
An analysis of the Israeli security establishment on the eve of Simchat Torah 2026, three years after October 7. The key lesson: there will not always be concrete warning, and one must be prepared for scenarios that were not on the table, such as the attempted takeover of a Flydubai plane. Iran is at the center of concerns, alongside fears of igniting the West Bank and kidnapping attempts in Gaza.
Yossi Yehoshua analyzes the situation assessment of the Israeli security establishment on the eve of Simchat Torah 2026, three years after the October 7, 2023 massacre. The starting point is the attempted takeover of a Flydubai flight, a scenario that was not on the table in security assessments. The key lesson: there will not always be concrete intelligence warning, and one must be prepared for everything. Iran is at the center of concerns, with the assessment that American pressure on it is effective and may lead it to choose between an agreement and confrontation. However, the current assessment is that no Iranian attack is expected in the near term. In Gaza, there is concrete warning of an attempt to kidnap a soldier, leading to high alert. In Judea and Samaria, the picture is explosive, with 26 battalions deployed in the sector. The article emphasizes that intelligence is never perfect, and that warning must translate into real-time action.