The path to toppling Iran does not go through a deal or an attack

Doron Hadar argues that overthrowing the Iranian ayatollah regime requires a multi-dimensional strategy of cumulative pressures, not a nuclear deal or a military strike. He presents a 'chaos theory' for weakening the regime's power centers while preparing for an alternative government.

Doron Hadar, a former commander of the IDF's crisis management and negotiation unit, argues in an opinion piece that the path to toppling the Iranian ayatollah regime does not go through a nuclear deal or a military strike, but through a multi-dimensional strategy of cumulative pressures. According to him, a deal may provide temporary stability and a military strike could harm strategic capabilities, but neither guarantees regime change. He presents a 'chaos theory' according to which the regime's power centers – the Revolutionary Guards, security apparatuses, economy, and propaganda – should be weakened simultaneously, creating internal cracks and loss of legitimacy. Hadar emphasizes the need to support Iranian civil society and opposition elements, and to prepare for the 'day after' with an agreed-upon alternative government, to prevent a power vacuum or civil war.