The opposition's scenario for deciding the elections and achieving the 61st seat

The opposition estimates that a voter turnout of 76%-77% in its strongholds, 60% turnout in the Arab sector, and erosion in the ultra-Orthodox public could lead to more than 61 seats. The assessments are based on a crisis in the ultra-Orthodox parties and three new parties that may split votes.

The opposition estimates that a voter turnout of 76%-77% in its strongholds, along with 60% turnout in the Arab sector and erosion in the ultra-Orthodox public, could lead to more than 61 seats. The assessments are based on the crisis affecting the ultra-Orthodox parties: erosion in support for Shas, internal disagreements in United Torah Judaism, and three new ultra-Orthodox parties that may split votes. The opposition estimates that in such a scenario, small parties like Handel-Zalicha, Winter, and the Reservists' Party would struggle to pass the electoral threshold. "As we approach 80%, the story is over," said opposition sources. The article does not include current poll data or counter-assessments from the coalition.