The decisive factor: How the Haredim can return to a balancing role in the political system | Ari Kalman

The Haredi parties, which hold 15 seats, could regain their position as the kingmakers if Gadi Eisenkot breaks his promise regarding a strict conscription law. In such a scenario, they could enable the change bloc to form a coalition, initially through external support and later as full partners.

As the vote count in the 2026 elections continues, initial data suggests that the Haredi parties, holding 15 seats, could return to a pivotal balancing role in the political system. The condition for this is that Gadi Eisenkot breaks his campaign promise regarding the enactment of a strict conscription law. In such a case, the Haredim could enable the change bloc to secure a coalition. Under this scenario, they could gradually join the coalition: first through external support and passing a conscription law, and later through full membership to secure positions, budgets, and jobs. Even if this does not happen, the price for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will rise, and the Haredim will become more sought after.

The decisive factor: How the Haredim can return to a balancing role in the political system | Ari Kalman