The analytical sample: What will the election results be according to the discourse on social networks?
C14's analytical model, based on AI analysis of social media discourse, predicts 62 seats for Netanyahu's bloc, with Likud rising to 29. Yashar! led by Eisenkot leads the opposition with 22 seats, while Bennett and Lapid together get only 6. The model examines the impact of Ofer Winter's Amcha Yisrael party on votes of former Soviet Union immigrants, and the effect of turnout rates in the Haredi and Arab sectors.
C14's analytical model, based on AI analysis of social media discourse, predicts 62 seats for Netanyahu's bloc, a Knesset majority even without the support of additional parties. Likud rises from 28 to 29 seats, Shas and Otzma Yehudit win 9 each, Smotrich-Zehut gets 8 and United Torah Judaism 7. In the Jewish opposition, Yashar! led by Gadi Eisenkot leads with 22 seats, the Democrats and Yisrael Beiteinu get 8 each, and Bennett and Lapid together get only 6. The Arab parties win 14 seats (the Joint List 9, Ra'am 5). The model examines the entry of Ofer Winter's Amcha Yisrael party into the battle for votes of former Soviet Union immigrants, which could threaten Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu. However, Winter still does not pass the electoral threshold. The predicted turnout rate stands at 71.8%, about 5.17 million voters. The model is based on four months of development and analysis of the parties' structure, voter transfers and participation rates. The article emphasizes that the model is experimental and does not constitute an election poll.