Study: A notable shift in the Palestinian issue regionally since 'Al-Aqsa Flood'

A study by the Palestinian Center for Political Studies concludes that the Palestinian issue has transformed from a center of conflict into an influential variable in reshaping conflicts and alignments in the Middle East since October 7, 2023, but its impact is conditional on factors including an explosion of the field situation and the transformation of public opinion into a constraint on decision-makers.

A new research study issued by the Palestinian Center for Political Studies, titled 'The Palestinian Issue and the Reshaping of Conflicts and Alignments in the Middle East: A Reading of the Conditions and Mechanisms of Transformation (2023–2026),' concludes that the Palestinian issue has undergone a notable shift in its position within the regional system since the events of October 7, 2023. The study, which covers developments until September 20, 2026, sees that the issue has moved from being a 'center of conflict' to an influential variable in reshaping conflicts and alignments, but its impact is conditional on factors including an explosion of the field situation, the transformation of public opinion into an actual constraint on decision-makers, and the failure of arrangements that seek to bypass the Palestinian issue. The paper identifies three main mechanisms for transferring the impact of the Palestinian arena to its regional surroundings: multi-front security escalation, economic cost and vital corridors, and legitimacy, public opinion, and law. The study warns against reducing all regional transformations to the Palestinian factor, noting that some developments, particularly the war on Iran, have independent dynamics. The study concludes by monitoring four possible paths until the end of 2027: managed armed stalemate, conditional phased settlement, collapse and regional escalation, and creeping annexation and the dismantling of the Authority in the West Bank.