Sinwar's secret message before 10/7 – and the reason Israel interpreted it differently

Weeks before October 7, a secret message from Yahya Sinwar reached Israel warning of an 'earthquake in the prisons.' Israeli intelligence interpreted it as related to the case of Elizabeth Tsurkov, after an Iranian official offered Hamas to take responsibility for negotiations for her release. In retrospect, it became clear that the message was intended to gain benefits from Israel and delay the attack.

Weeks before October 7, 2023, a secret message from Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader in Gaza, reached Israel. The message, revealed by Channel 12 about two years ago, contained an unusual warning: 'An earthquake is expected in the prisons due to the prisoner issue.' At that time, Israeli intelligence identified a new development regarding Elizabeth Tsurkov, the Israeli researcher held in Iraq. A senior Iranian official approached Hamas and offered the organization to take responsibility for the negotiations for her release, and the Iraqi organization holding her agreed. This combination reinforced the assessment that Sinwar's message was related to Tsurkov. In a special situation assessment convened at the request of the Shin Bet, no factor offered an alternative interpretation. In retrospect, it became clear that the message was intended to gain additional benefits from Israel and delay the planned attack. A senior security establishment official also addressed the claim about a warning from UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed to Prime Minister Netanyahu, saying such a message 'could have been the penny that would have sent the system into other deepening steps.' Netanyahu denies the existence of such a conversation.