Not only Syria, Lebanon and Libya: Erdogan wants to conquer another Arab country

The article examines the changing balance of power in Iraq ahead of the withdrawal of American forces, focusing on the status of Iraqi Kurdistan. It presents Kurdish concern over increasing Iranian bullying, alongside the possibility that Turkey, through its economic and security ties with the Kurds, will take a more central role in the region and fill part of the void left by the US.

The article analyzes the implications of the withdrawal of American forces from Iraq on the regional balance of power, focusing on Iraqi Kurdistan (KRG). Two days before the withdrawal, Iran attacked the Azadi camp in Erbil, affiliated with the Iranian Kurdish opposition, using drones, aiming to deter Kurdish groups from creating unrest within its borders. The Prime Minister of the Kurdistan Region, Masrour Barzani, expressed concern over growing Iranian bullying. In contrast, Kurdish relations with Turkey are described as more cooperative. Turkey is Iraq's third-largest export market, and many Turkish companies operate in Kurdistan. By 2023, Turkey imported about 25% of its oil from Kurdistan, and supply has recently resumed. Now, with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline is the only export route for Iraqi oil. The article argues that cooperation with Turkey may be more tolerable for Iran than secret cooperation with Israel, as Tehran and Ankara share similar goals in the region: preventing Kurdish militancy, curbing Kurdish nationalism, and preventing an Israeli foothold. Therefore, Turkey, with Iran's tacit approval, may be the one to fill the American void.