Not just who they vote for, but how many: The election will also be decided by those who stay home

A week before the elections, 7.3 million eligible voters can cast their ballots. As turnout rises, so does the number of votes needed for a seat, and small parties may be left out. The article reviews the impact of turnout in the Haredi and Arab sectors on election results.

A week before the Knesset elections, about 7.3 million eligible voters can vote, but turnout is expected to determine the election results. The article explains that the more people vote, the higher the 'seat threshold' – the number of votes needed for each seat in the Knesset. In the 2022 elections, the threshold stood at about 36,000 votes per seat; this time, with a growing voter registry, it is expected to be about 40,000 votes if turnout is 70%, and about 42,000 if it reaches 75%. The electoral threshold (3.25%) will require about 167,000 votes in the first scenario and about 178,000 in the second. Small parties, such as Ofer Winter's Amcha Yisrael and Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelicha's Miluamnikim-Calkalit, are at high risk. The article mentions historical examples: in April 2019, the New Right was left out with 3.22%, and in 2022, Meretz and Balad did not pass the threshold. In the Haredi public, there is concern about a drop in turnout due to disappointment with representatives over the conscription issue. In Arab society, turnout ranges from 65% (2020) to 53.2% (2022).