Not Just Intelligence and Military: Did the Internal Crisis Weaken Israel Before October 7? | Col. (Res.) Amir Noy
The article examines the hypothesis that the political-legal crisis in Israel, which peaked in the confrontation over the judicial system and the 2023 protests, weakened the state's ability to identify threats and make timely decisions, thereby contributing to the failures of October 7. The author, Col. (Res.) Amir Noy, presents the 'Mandelblit Effect' as a hypothesis for investigation, according to which the legal proceedings against Netanyahu and the governmental instability changed the operating conditions of the political and security system, but emphasizes that this is not a proven conclusion.
The article, by Col. (Res.) Amir Noy, examines a central hypothesis: whether the ongoing political-legal crisis in Israel, which peaked in the sharp confrontation over the judicial system and the 2023 protests, weakened the state's ability to identify dangers, make decisions, and correct mistakes in time, thereby contributing to the failures of October 7. The author presents the 'Mandelblit Effect' as a hypothesis for systematic investigation, according to which the legal proceedings against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the governmental instability, and the deepening polarization that followed changed the operating conditions of the political and security system. The article emphasizes that this is not a proven conclusion, but a broad hypothesis that is not satisfied with searching for a single intelligence error or one failed commander. It calls for a comprehensive examination of the functioning of the political echelon, its working relations with the military echelon, and the impact of the crisis on managerial attention, priorities, and trust between state institutions. The author also examines the impact of the protests on the IDF, distinguishing between public statements and actual readiness data, and the question of whether the policy of containment and deterrence toward Gaza stemmed from intelligence assessments or political considerations. The article discusses the need for an independent commission of inquiry, comparing possible models, and emphasizes the importance of examining findings that contradict the hypothesis.