Netanyahu will have to choose – what he risks before the elections

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a political dilemma: strengthening Likud may cost votes from the small allied parties of Smotrich and Winter, while attempts to curb his own party's growth could weaken it. According to polls, Netanyahu's bloc could win 49–53 seats, but one of the small parties risks failing to cross the threshold. An article in Maariv examines two scenarios: strengthening Likud with the risk of losing allies, or weakening it to ensure their entry into the Knesset.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu finds himself facing a complex political dilemma ahead of the 2026 elections. To maintain the ability to form a blocking coalition against his opponents, he will have to choose between strengthening Likud and preserving support for small allied parties. This is according to an opinion piece by Sophie Ron Moria in the Israeli publication Maariv. The journalist assesses that Netanyahu's main problem is that strengthening Likud could lead to a loss of votes for the parties of Bezalel Smotrich and Ofer Winter. At the same time, attempts to curb the growth of his own party could weaken its position and create additional risks for the prime minister. According to the polls reviewed in the article, Likud and the parties of Itamar Ben-Gvir, Smotrich, and Winter together could win 35–37 seats. Another 15–16 seats go to the two ultra-Orthodox factions. Thus, support for Netanyahu's bloc is estimated at 49–53 seats. The prospects for the small parties remain uncertain: Smotrich's party gets about five seats, and Winter's party gets four, but one of them may fail to cross the 3.25% electoral threshold. The author considers two possible scenarios. In the first, Likud strengthens its position and wins about 23 seats, Ben-Gvir gets 8–9 seats, and one or both small parties fail to enter the Knesset. In the second scenario, Likud weakens to 17–18 seats, allowing Smotrich and Winter's parties to cross the threshold, but Netanyahu's own position within the bloc is threatened. Moria notes that it will be difficult for the prime minister to simultaneously stop the flow of voters to Ben-Gvir and prevent further weakening of Likud. According to the author, Netanyahu aims not so much to secure a majority for his bloc as to prevent his opponents from forming a majority, maintaining support at around 48–50 seats and counting on possible support from Arab factions.