"Maybe Bibi will grant us asylum in Israel": How the war in Iran became Trump's election disaster

A New York Times investigation reveals that Trump's advisors joked about seeking asylum in Israel with Netanyahu, realizing the war in Iran would lead to defeat in the midterm elections. An internal presentation showed a link between the fighting and declining support, and the Democrats won both houses of Congress.

A New York Times investigation reveals that President Donald Trump's senior advisors understood before the November 2026 midterm elections that the war in Iran would cause a political defeat. In a closed video call six days before the election, more than 24 senior strategists shared dark jokes about funerals, prisons, and seeking political asylum in Israel with Benjamin Netanyahu. The investigation, based on interviews with more than 70 sources, shows that an internal presentation circulated by James Blair in the summer linked the war's progress to weakening Republican support. Democrats enjoyed a ten-point advantage in polls, and the warning was that without a permanent ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Republicans could lose the Senate. A deal reached in June between Vice President JD Vance and Iran collapsed under pressure from hawkish figures like Senator Ted Cruz. Gas prices crossed the four-dollar-per-gallon mark, and the war turned Trump's promise to avoid new wars into a vulnerability. Alongside the war, Trump supported controversial candidates and delayed campaign spending approvals, leading to high advertising costs. The result: Democrats won a majority in both houses of Congress, in the worst Republican defeat in nearly fifty years.